Calgary's housing market has been one of Canada's strongest performers over the past two years. While Toronto and Vancouver cooled significantly through 2024-2025, Calgary saw sustained demand, tight inventory, and steady price appreciation.
The question for 2026: does this momentum continue, or are we due for a correction?
This isn't a crystal ball prediction. Markets are complex, and anyone claiming certainty about future prices is selling something. But we can look at the fundamentals—supply, demand, interest rates, migration patterns, and economic conditions—to understand where Calgary's market is likely headed.
Here's what the data suggests and what it means for buyers and investors in 2026.
Where We've Been: 2024-2025 Recap
Calgary's housing market strengthened considerably through 2024 and into 2025:
Price Appreciation: Benchmark home prices rose approximately 8-10% in 2024, with continued growth into early 2025. Detached homes in established neighbourhoods saw the strongest gains.
Migration Boom: Alberta led the country in interprovincial migration. Families from Ontario and BC moved to Calgary for affordability, job opportunities, and lifestyle. This created sustained buyer demand across all price segments.
Inventory Constraints: New listings couldn't keep pace with demand. Months of inventory sat below balanced market levels for most of 2024, creating competitive conditions for buyers.
Interest Rate Impact: Even as the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in mid-2024, Calgary's market held firm. Lower rates increased buying power, which translated into price support rather than cooling demand.
The result: Calgary became one of the few major Canadian markets where buyers faced bidding wars and tight conditions through 2024-2025.
Price Trends: Where Are We Now?
As of early 2026, here's what typical Calgary properties cost:
Detached Homes:
- City-wide benchmark: ~$650,000-680,000
- Established neighbourhoods (Altadore, Mount Pleasant, Killarney): $750,000-950,000
- New developments (Mahogany, Auburn Bay, Evanston): $600,000-750,000
- Year-over-year change: +6-8%
Townhomes:
- City-wide benchmark: ~$425,000-450,000
- Inner-city infills: $500,000-650,000
- Suburban communities: $380,000-480,000
- Year-over-year change: +5-7%
Condos:
- City-wide benchmark: ~$310,000-330,000
- Downtown high-rise: $280,000-450,000
- Suburban low-rise: $240,000-320,000
- Year-over-year change: +4-6%
Neighbourhood Variation: Price growth hasn't been uniform. Southeast Calgary (SE Calgary) and communities like Airdrie saw above-average appreciation due to affordability and new development. Northwest Calgary (NW Calgary) remained stable with premium pricing. Northeast Calgary (NE Calgary) offered the best value for buyers prioritizing affordability.
Interest Rate Outlook
The Bank of Canada's rate trajectory is the single biggest variable for housing demand in 2026.
Where We Are: The overnight rate sits at approximately 3.25% as of February 2026, down from the 5.00% peak in mid-2023. Fixed mortgage rates for well-qualified buyers are in the 4.5-5.2% range, with variable rates slightly lower.
What's Expected: Market observers anticipate at least one more rate cut in the first half of 2026, potentially bringing the overnight rate to 2.75-3.00% by summer. If inflation remains controlled, we could see the policy rate settle around 2.50% by year-end.
What This Means for Buyers: Lower rates increase purchasing power. A 0.50% rate drop on a $600,000 mortgage saves roughly $175/month, which translates to approximately $30,000 more borrowing capacity. This supports continued price stability or modest appreciation, particularly if inventory remains tight.
The Risk: If inflation resurges, rate cuts could stall or reverse. This is less likely given current economic conditions, but it's the primary downside scenario.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Calgary's market strength comes down to a simple equation: more buyers than available homes.
Population Growth: Alberta continues to lead Canada in net migration. Interprovincial moves remain strong, with families leaving expensive BC and Ontario markets. International immigration adds further demand. Calgary's population growth rate sits around 2.5-3% annually—well above the national average.
Why People Are Moving Here: It's not just affordability. Calgary's economy has diversified beyond oil and gas. The tech sector is growing, with companies in fintech, software, and clean energy creating high-paying jobs. Film and creative industries have expanded. Combined with lower taxes, reasonable housing costs, and proximity to the mountains, Calgary remains attractive.
New Construction Pipeline: Builders ramped up activity in 2024-2025, particularly in greenfield communities like Cornerstone, Carrington, and Redstone. However, construction timelines stretch 18-24 months, and regulatory approval processes create lag time. New supply helps, but it's not arriving fast enough to cool demand significantly.
Inventory Levels: Months of inventory—the time it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace—remains below the 3-4 month "balanced market" threshold in many segments. Until inventory normalizes, upward price pressure persists.
What This Means for Buyers
If you're planning to buy in Calgary in 2026, here's how to think about timing and strategy:
Timing Considerations: Waiting for a market crash is a low-probability bet. Calgary's fundamentals—job growth, migration, constrained supply—support price stability. Even a modest correction of 5-10% would only bring prices back to late 2025 levels, and you'd lose 12 months of building equity.
Pre-Approval Strategy: Get pre-approved early. Use the affordability calculator and mortgage payment calculator to understand your range, then lock in a rate hold. If rates drop further, you benefit. If they hold steady, you've protected yourself.
Market Competitiveness: Expect competition, especially in desirable neighbourhoods and well-priced listings. Be ready to move quickly on properties that fit your criteria. Work with a realtor who knows your target area and can identify value.
Focus on Fundamentals: Buy what makes sense for your lifestyle and budget, not what you think will appreciate fastest. A well-located property in a strong neighbourhood will hold value regardless of short-term market fluctuations.
First-Time Buyers: Calgary remains accessible for first-time buyers, particularly in suburban communities and the condo market. Programs like the FHSA and RRSP Home Buyers' Plan help with down payments. Check out the first-time buyers guide for specific strategies.
What This Means for Investors
Calgary's investment property market offers opportunities that are harder to find in Toronto or Vancouver:
Rental Market Strength: Calgary's rental vacancy rate sits below 3%, creating strong landlord conditions. Rents have increased steadily, with two-bedroom apartments averaging $1,700-1,900/month and detached homes renting for $2,500-3,500+.
Cap Rates: Investors can still find properties with 4-6% cap rates in Calgary, particularly in secondary locations or multi-family properties. That's attractive compared to sub-3% cap rates in other major markets.
Multi-Family Opportunities: Duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in mature neighbourhoods offer value. Zoning changes allowing secondary suites and laneway homes create additional revenue potential.
Cash Flow vs Appreciation: Calgary offers better cash flow potential than appreciation-focused markets. If you're building a rental portfolio, this matters. Positive cash flow provides stability even if appreciation slows.
Risk Factors: Calgary's economy still has meaningful exposure to energy prices. A sustained oil price drop would impact employment and demand. Diversification into tech and other sectors reduces this risk but doesn't eliminate it.
Investors should focus on properties with strong fundamentals: good locations, solid rental demand, and positive or near-positive cash flow. Speculative purchases based solely on appreciation assumptions carry more risk in Calgary than in supply-constrained markets.
Neighbourhood Watch: Areas to Watch in 2026
Southeast Calgary (SE Calgary): Communities like Mahogany, Auburn Bay, and Seton continue to attract families. New amenities, schools, and transit access support long-term value. Expect continued demand and modest appreciation.
Northwest Calgary (NW Calgary): Established communities like Tuscany, Arbour Lake, and Royal Oak offer stability and strong schools. Prices are higher but hold value well. Limited new inventory keeps these neighbourhoods competitive.
Northeast Calgary (NE Calgary): The most affordable quadrant for buyers. Communities like Cityscape, Redstone, and Cornerstone offer new construction at entry-level prices. Investors find better cash flow here, though appreciation may lag other areas.
Surrounding Cities: Airdrie, Cochrane, and Okotoks offer affordability with reasonable commutes. These markets tend to follow Calgary's trends with a 6-12 month lag. Growth in these areas depends heavily on Calgary's economic strength.
Inner-City Infills: Mature neighbourhoods close to downtown (Marda Loop, Kensington, Inglewood) remain premium markets. Expect continued demand from downsizers, young professionals, and buyers prioritizing walkability. Limited supply keeps prices elevated.
Risks and Uncertainties
No forecast is complete without acknowledging what could go wrong:
Oil Price Dependency: While Calgary has diversified, energy sector performance still matters. A sustained drop in oil prices would impact employment and demand. Current diversification efforts reduce but don't eliminate this risk.
Federal Policy Changes: Immigration policy, mortgage stress test rules, and housing regulations can shift quickly. Changes to any of these could cool demand or restrict buyer access.
Interest Rate Volatility: If inflation resurges and forces rate increases, buyer affordability takes a hit. This is currently a low-probability scenario but would impact demand significantly.
Economic Headwinds: A broader Canadian or global recession would cool Calgary's market, regardless of local fundamentals. Employment and consumer confidence drive housing demand.
Oversupply Risk: If new construction accelerates faster than population growth, inventory could flood the market and pressure prices. This seems unlikely given current absorption rates, but it's possible in a scenario where demand drops unexpectedly.
Jay's Take
I've worked in Calgary mortgages through multiple market cycles. Here's my read on 2026:
Calgary's fundamentals are strong. Population growth, economic diversification, and relative affordability create a solid foundation. Barring an unexpected economic shock, I expect continued stability with modest price appreciation in the 3-6% range for 2026.
The wild card is interest rates. If the Bank of Canada delivers another 0.50-0.75% in cuts, buyer demand strengthens further and prices firm up. If rates hold steady or reverse, we see cooling but not a collapse.
For buyers: this isn't a market where waiting pays off. If you find a property that fits your needs and budget, buy it. Trying to time a correction is low-probability, and you're building equity while you wait.
For investors: Calgary offers better fundamentals than most Canadian markets, but returns come from cash flow and long-term holds, not quick flips. Buy properties with strong rental demand and solid locations.
The next 12 months won't be dramatic. Calgary's market is maturing into a balanced, sustainable state after the volatility of 2020-2024. That's good news for everyone except speculators.
Want to talk about your specific situation? Whether you're buying your first home or adding to an investment portfolio, let's look at your numbers and build a plan. Check out programs for first-time buyers or investment properties, or reach out directly.
Calgary's market is strong. Let's make sure you're positioned to take advantage of it.
